We run our four-model blend — ECMWF, NOAA GFS, DWD ICON and Environment Canada’s GEM — across every resort and read out what stands out. This is the outlook for the Pacific Northwest for October 26 to November 9.
The season is starting where the Cascades and Coast Mountains meet the Pacific, and the story so far is Oregon.
Oregon’s Mt Hood opens the account
The biggest numbers in the region right now are around Mt Hood. Timberline Lodge is forecast for about 28 cm at the upper mountain over the next seven days, building to 37 cm over two weeks — with the wettest model in the blend reading as high as 52 cm. Mt Hood Meadows sits close behind at 24 cm this week, and Mt Bachelor adds a more modest 14 cm.
Oregon leads partly because its upper mountains sit higher — Timberline tops out above 2,300 m — so more of the hill stays above the warm snow line. Washington’s Cascades are in the mix but a step behind: Snoqualmie Pass shows about 15 cm, Stevens Pass 13 cm and Crystal Mountain 13 cm over the week.
In British Columbia the first week is quiet — Whistler reads only about 5 cm — but the models load up week two, with Whistler reaching 43 cm over the fortnight and Vancouver Island’s Mount Washington 32 cm.
What’s driving it: a parade of Pacific fronts
This is a textbook late-October setup for the Pacific Northwest. A line of Pacific frontal systems — the warm, wet storms that ride in off the ocean, some of them proper atmospheric rivers — are queued up one after another. Each one slams into the Cascades and Coast Mountains, and as the air is forced uphill the moisture is wrung out as rain and snow.
The catch this early in the season is the snow level. Our blend puts the freezing level at roughly 1,500 to 2,200 m through the first half of the week — high for October. That means rain at the bases and snow only from mid-mountain up. Crystal Mountain tells the story in one line: the freezing level starts near 2,000 m and steps down to around 1,100 m by the end of the month as cooler air works in behind each front. Each system flakes lower on the hill than the one before it.
That’s also why the base and upper numbers split so sharply. Timberline’s base reads about 11 cm over seven days against 28 cm at the upper mountain — same storms, very different outcome depending on elevation. Early season, you want the resorts that keep their upper terrain open.
| Resort | Area | 7 days | 14 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timberline Lodge | Mt Hood, Oregon | 28 cm | 37 cm |
| Mt Hood Meadows | Mt Hood, Oregon | 24 cm | 27 cm |
| Mt Bachelor | Central Oregon | 14 cm | 20 cm |
| Snoqualmie Pass | Washington Cascades | 15 cm | 17 cm |
| Stevens Pass | Washington Cascades | 13 cm | 21 cm |
| Crystal Mountain | Washington Cascades | 13 cm | 22 cm |
| Mission Ridge | Washington Cascades | 9 cm | 12 cm |
| Whistler Blackcomb | Coast Mountains, BC | 5 cm | 43 cm |
| Mt Washington | Vancouver Island, BC | 9 cm | 32 cm |
| Cypress Mountain | North Shore, BC | 10 cm | 15 cm |
| Mount Seymour | North Shore, BC | 10 cm | 14 cm |
| Grouse Mountain | North Shore, BC | 9 cm | 13 cm |
| Revelstoke | Selkirks, BC | 13 cm | 19 cm |
| Big White | Okanagan, BC | 11 cm | 17 cm |
| Sun Peaks | Interior, BC | 6 cm | 10 cm |
How to read this
Two things to keep in mind, because we would rather be straight about it. First, these are upper-mountain totals — roughly three-quarters of the way up the hill, where the top lifts run — so the base always reads lower. Every resort page shows base, mid and upper separately so you can see the spread.
Second, these are forecasts, and models over mountains disagree more than anywhere else. We blend four independent models and show the spread between the wettest and driest on each resort page. Here’s how we keep that honest. A wide range means low confidence, whatever the headline says.
The fastest way to watch it develop is the live map, switched between 24 hours, 7 days and 14 days.